If the Greater Boston market is still looking so strong, why is everyone worried? Here are my predictions for 2019!
1. Wayfair will double their occupancy in Boston.
2. Boston and Cambridge Office rental rates will rise to record levels for new space surpassing $120psf.
3. Apartment rental rates will be flat.
4. WeWork will make a move to the suburbs.
5. Electric bikes & scooters will be allowed in Boston (and then regretted).
6. Bitcoin value will fall, other Cryptocurrencies will rise.
7. Foreign investment in commercial real estate will drop.
8. The stock market will hit an all time low and an all time high.
9. The Fed will raise rates ¼% only once during the next year.
10. Tiger Woods will win a major.
Below were my predictions for 2018. Not too bad!
1. Amazon will pass on Boston for a campus, but leave us with a great consolation prize. [Yes and 1mm sq. ft coming to the Seaport]
2. No Turnpike air rights project will start construction (ditto for 2019). [None, so far]
3. Fed. interest rates will be up 75 basis points by end of year. [50 basis points]
4. In Boston, more condos will be permitted than rental apartments (other than the neighborhoods). [Rental approved by BPDA: 33%/Condo: 67%]
5. An office or lab lease will hit $100 per square foot in Cambridge. [Boeing office, 314 Main Street: $106.63 Net effective rent]
6. Construction costs, on average, will be up 7%. [ to date, 6-7%]
7. More than one million SF of commercial space will commence on spec. [Office: Boston & Cambridge: 1,008,000 SF; Lab: Boston& Cambridge: 1,226,000 SF]
8. The 128 office market will show more transactions (both numbers and SF) than the downtown market. [Downtown wins]
9. Foreign buyers will begin to acquire major CRE property outside of Boston/Cambridge. [No]
10. And, yes, the Patriots will do it again. [Almost!]